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Oct 2025

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Claude Code：AI吞噬软件开发的转折点

SemiAnalysis认为Claude Code标志AI Agent时代开启，已占据GitHub 4%提交，Anthropic营收增速超OpenAI。它颠覆软件开发与信息工作，威胁SaaS与微软模式，预示知识经济重构。

0.01 USDC 3 次购买

巨大的泡沫和巨大的财富差距带来的巨大危险

了解财富和金钱之间的区别以及它们之间的关系非常重要，最重要的是：1）当金融财富相对于金钱数量变得非常大时，泡沫是如何产生的；2）当需要金钱导致出售财富以获取金钱时，泡沫是如何破裂的。

0.005 USDC 2 次购买

Hotwire Native 深度解析：推送通知

原生推送通知比较复杂，因为需要正确处理很多环节。以下是我在 Hotwire 原生应用中实现原生推送通知的详细步骤。

0.001 USDC 0 次购买

帖子 Media

Moon

· 25m

#Coinbase CEO：“最聪明的银行 CEO 们正倾向于稳定币和代币化。” #usdc #rwa

https://x.com/Etherealize_io/status/2035462529627947510?s=20

中文 English

0:00 但我认为现在所有最聪明的大银行CEO

0:03 都在倾向于

0:04 稳定币和加密货币，他们正在整合稳定币

0:08 系统，因为

0:09 它们更快更便宜。

0:10 这样可以节省Swift手续费，更快地转移客户资金。

0:13 他们还

0:14 利用加密给各种基金和资产做代币化，然后

0:17 他们

0:18 为客户提供加密交易，比如他们的高净值客户

0:22 等

0:22 想要接触这些资产的人。

Moon

· 5h

USDC的交易量刚刚反超USDT！

这是自2019年以来的首次。

🔹 2019年：USDT 87% / USDC 13%

🔹 2022年：USDT 54% / USDC 46%

🔹 2024年：USDT 70% / USDC 30%

🔹 2026年：USDT 36% / USDC 64%

7年间形势彻底逆转。

#USDT 在市值方面仍占据领先地位。

但 #USDC 正在真正重要的领域胜出：实际交易量。

机构投资者、AI代理、支付服务商，他们都在选择USDC。

https://x.com/LeonWaidmann/status/2034925922294362386?s=20

Moon

· 9h

跨链结算的速度仍不足以支撑卓越的产品用户体验。

借助 Circle Gateway，开发者可以统一跨链的 USDC 余额，并通过单一 Gateway 余额实现跨链支付。

减少预存资金。
减少余额调整。
更多时间用于产品发布。

文档：https://developers.circle.com/gateway

https://x.com/BuildOnCircle/status/2035017928022925795?s=20

Moon

· 10h

#Lightspeed 的@buckymoore表示，AI应用层真正的机遇在于那些与当前模型提供商所涉领域相距甚远的大型行业——在这些领域中，将客户数据导入模型所需的上下文工程工作极其复杂且繁琐。 #ai

https://x.com/tbpn/status/2035116995826610423?s=20

中文 English

0:00 是的，很高兴你提到了Cursor和软件工程领域

0:03 因为

0:03 它显然是最成熟的领域，所以我觉得它和法律领域一样很有启发性

0:07 有趣的是

0:07 今天你们，我不确定你们节目开始时有没有提到

0:10 不过比如说

0:11 Cursor启动的模型，对吧？所以首先现在很明显

0:15 这些

0:16 公司都将训练自己的模型，同时

0:19 也是事实

0:19 他们会先用这些开源权重模型，而这些模型现在

0:22 多来自中国，这点

0:22 作为美国公民我不是很认可，我们投资了一家叫

0:26 Reflection AI的公司

0:27 目标就是改变这个局面，但另一方面我确实认为

0:32 Cursor想证明的是

0:33 他们收集的用户数据能让他们建立

0:36 这种强化

0:37 学习循环，允许他们打造出接近最前沿质量的产品

0:40 与此同时

0:42 这些公司似乎仍然把许多最复杂的查询

0:45 发送给

0:46 Codex或更准确地说GPT的云端，显然这其中存在利润空间问题

0:51 这很

0:52 难以竞争，考虑到OpenAI和Anthropic的竞争产品

0:55 的情况

0:56 然后转换到法律领域，我的假设是

0:59 Harvey和

0:59 LaGora也必须做和Cursor一样的事情，所以我认为这是

1:02 现在一个

1:03 绕不开的问题，即后训练的开源模型是否能允许

1:07 结合来自应用提供商

1:08 独特用户反馈，

1:10 这种模式是否足够具有防御性

1:11 所以当我思考那些准备投资的公司时，我其实觉得这对任何

1:16 行业来说都是

1:17 不可避免的挑战，尤其是那些人工智能渗透已经成熟的行业

1:19 比如法律和

1:21 软件工程

1:23 领域

1:24 另一方面，我认为有些行业体量很大，距离模型提供者目前的水平

1:28 还很遥远，

1:29 未来也可能一直如此，同时

1:32 把客户数据导入模型的上下文工程异常

1:32 复杂，需要跨越多个业务部门，还需要大量亲力亲为的前线部署

1:37 的工程师，我认为这类公司才是

1:38 我们真正感兴趣的，因为

1:41 他们的能力不仅具有防御性，

1:42 还能让他们开始和客户形成反馈循环，听到很多客户的秘密

1:44 这些秘密

1:45 会反馈到产品优化中，而这会让其他竞争者难以进入这个市场

1:49 因为如果你服务的是客户，

1:51 他们只会告诉你那些秘密

1:54 对吗

1:56 是的，我觉得Palantir就是这种情况的一个很好的例子

1:58 在AI出现之前，

1:59 我认为我们将看到许多公司以相同的方式崛起，所以投资

2:01 应用层的公司

2:02 他们对这个市场的难点和防御性有非常清晰的理解，

2:05 能够把它

2:06 变成核心竞争力。Gemini 3 Pro是谷歌迄今最智能的模型，

2:10 拥有先进的推理能力，

2:10 下一水平的代码编写和深度多模态理解能力。

0:00 Yeah, so I'm glad you brought up cursor and like the software engineering space

0:03 because

0:03 it's obviously the most mature so I think it's very illustrative as is legal

0:07 and interestingly

0:07 today you guys I'm not sure if you guys covered this in the beginning of the

0:10 show but like the

0:11 model that cursor launched right so so first off you know it's very obvious now

0:15 that these

0:16 companies are going to be training their own models and it's it's it's also the

0:19 case that

0:19 they're going to be starting with one of these open weight models which today

0:22 are Chinese which

0:22 as an American citizen doesn't sit super well with me we are investors in a

0:26 company called

0:27 reflection AI that aims to change that but on the other hand I do think what

0:32 cursor is out to prove

0:33 is that the user data that they're capturing is going to allow them to set up

0:36 this reinforcement

0:37 learning loop that does allow them to build something that is like frontier

0:40 quality at the same time

0:42 it appears as though these companies are still sending a lot of their most

0:45 complex queries to

0:46 codecs to or rather GPT into into cloud and there's obviously a margin problem

0:51 there that is pretty

0:52 hard to compete with when you think about the competitive products that open AI

0:55 and anthropic

0:56 have and then when you shift gears to legal my assumption would be that like

0:59 Harvey and

0:59 LaGora will have to do the same thing that cursor's doing and so I think this

1:02 is kind of an elephant

1:03 in the room right now as to whether doing that thing whether post-training open

1:07 models allows

1:08 you to combine with like unique user feedback that you get from being an

1:10 application provider

1:11 is is defensible enough and so when I when I think about like the companies

1:16 that were looking to

1:17 invest in I would actually say that I think that is just going to be an

1:19 inevitable challenge for any

1:21 these industries that hit a maturation point of AI adoption like legal and

1:23 software engineering

1:24 have but on the other hand I think there's some industries where they're very

1:28 large they're far

1:29 enough a field from where the model providers are today and probably will

1:32 continue to be and the

1:32 context engineering to actually get the customer data into the model is just so

1:37 messy it requires

1:38 going across different business functions it requires a lot of like hands-on

1:41 forward deployed

1:42 engineering I think those are the kind of companies that we get really excited

1:44 about because I think

1:45 just being really good at that is not only defensible but it also allows you to

1:49 start to generate this

1:51 like feedback loop with your customers where you hear a lot of their secrets

1:54 and those secrets allow

1:56 you to feed that back into how you make your product better at the expense of

1:58 anyone else playing

1:59 in the space because if you're serving the customer they're only telling you

2:01 those secrets right

2:02 yeah and I think Palantir is like a good example of this in sort of the pre-AI

2:05 era and I think

2:06 we're going to see many companies ascend in that same way and so the companies

2:10 that were investing

2:10 in the application layer I think have a really clear story around how that is

2:14 hard and defensible

2:15 enough that they can make it a core competency Gemini 3 Pro Google's most

2:19 intelligent model yet

2:20 with state-of-the-art reasoning next-level vibe coding and deep multimodal

2:25 understanding

Moon

· 11h

#USDC 的日交易量创下历史新高

https://x.com/artemis/status/2035029269156393124?s=20

Moon

· 11h

Andrej Karpathy 谈基于不可信工作者池的自动搜索：

“我那些将不可信工作者池（融入自动搜索）的设计，实际上有点像区块链。

只不过这里没有区块，而是提交（commits），这些提交可以相互构建，并包含你在改进代码时所做的更改。

所谓的工作量证明，本质上就是通过大量实验来找出有效的提交。”

分布式且无许可的自动搜索 ~= 有用工作量证明这一理念，目前仍停留在高层次的直觉层面，但至少可以说它极具吸引力。

有人需要进一步深入研究。关于尚缺的内容，请参阅 QT。 #ai #加密货币 #区块链

https://x.com/_weidai/status/2035236632161656969?s=20

中文 English

0:00 我认为一个问题是，如果你有一堆节点

0:03 可以进行并行处理，那么你很容易让多个自动研究者

0:06 通过一个公共系统交流什么的。当时我更感兴趣的是

0:09 如何在互联网中有一群不可信的工作者。

0:11 举个例子，在自动研究中，你只是想

0:14 找到那段能训练模型达到非常低验证损失的代码。

0:18 如果有人给你一个候选提交，你很容易验证该提交是否正确。

0:22 很好。比如，有人可能声称他们那段代码优化得更好，

0:26 能给你更好的性能。你可以很容易地检验，

0:29 但可能需要大量工作去检查。不过基本上，

0:32 他们依然可能会撒谎等等。

0:34 所以你基本上面对的是类似的问题，

0:37 其实我设计的含不可信工作者池的系统，

0:40 看起来有点像区块链，因为你不是用区块，

0:43 而是用提交，提交可以相互建立，

0:45 包含你不断改进代码的变更。

0:47 工作量证明基本是做大量试验以找到有效提交。

0:51 那很难。而奖励就是登上排行榜，现在

0:55 没有任何金钱奖励。

0:57 不过我不想把这个比喻推得太远，

1:01 但它本质上有这个问题：

1:03 搜索需要大量计算，但验证候选方案是否优秀很便宜，

1:07 因为你只需训练一次。

1:10 有人可能试了10000次，但你只需要

1:13 验证他们产出的方案有效，

1:16 因为那其他的9990次都失败了。

1:19 总之，长话短说，

1:22 你得设计一个系统，让不可信池的工作者可以

1:25 与可信池工作者协作进行验证。

1:26 整个过程是异步的，可以工作，

1:31 从安全角度来说也安全，

1:33 因为如果有人发任意代码给你执行，那很危险。

1:37 但从根本上说，这是完全可能的。

0:00 think like one issue is if you have a bunch of nodes of

0:03 parallelization available to you, then it's very easy to just

0:06 have multiple auto researchers talking through a common system

0:09 or something like that. When I was more interested in is how

0:11 you can have an untrusted pool of workers out there on the

0:14 internet. So for example, in auto research, you're just trying

0:18 to find the piece of code that trains a model to a very low

0:22 validation loss. If anyone gives you a candidate commit, it's

0:26 very easy to verify that that commit is correct. It's good. Like

0:29 they, someone could claim from the internet that this piece of

0:32 code will optimize much better and give you much better

0:34 performance. You can just check it very easy, but probably a

0:37 lot of work goes into that checking. But fundamentally, they

0:40 can lie and etc. So you're basically dealing with a

0:43 similar kind of, it's almost actually like looks a little bit

0:45 like my, my designs that incorporate an untrusted pool of

0:47 workers, actually look a little bit more like a blockchain a

0:51 little bit, because instead of blocks, you have commits, and

0:55 commits can build on each other, and they contain like changes

0:57 to the code as you're improving it. And the proof of work is

1:01 basically doing tons of experimentation to find the

1:03 commits that work. And that's hard. And then the reward is

1:07 just being on the leaderboard right now, there's no monetary

1:10 reward whatsoever. But I don't want to push the analogy too far,

1:13 but it fundamentally has this issue where you run off search

1:16 goes into it, but it's very cheap to verify that a candidate

1:19 solution is indeed good, because you can just train a single,

1:22 you know, someone had to try 10,000 IZs, but you just have to

1:25 check that the thing that they produced actually works,

1:26 because the 99,000 of them didn't work, you know. And so

1:31 basically, long story short, it's like you have to come up with

1:33 a system where an untrusted pool of workers can collaborate

1:37 with a trusted pool of workers that do the verification. And

1:42 the whole thing is kind of like asynchronous and works and

1:44 and so on. And it's like safe from a security perspective,

1:49 because if anyone sends you arbitrary code and you're gonna

1:51 run it, that's very sketchy and dodgy. So, but fundamentally,

1:55 it should be totally possible.

Moon

· 11h

“是什么让 #Phantom 脱颖而出？”

敬请收听CEO @BChillman 在 @a16zcrypto 播客中的见解 🍿 #钱包

https://x.com/phantom/status/2035039180473213286?s=20

中文 English

0:00 - 让我们更深入聊聊你在 Phantom 的工作。

0:02 对于不了解的人来说，

0:03 Phantom 有什么特别之处？

0:04 它与其他钱包选项有什么区别？

0:07 人们可以随时选择这些钱包。

0:08 - 我们非常重视整体用户体验，

0:12 很多人会混淆界面设计和用户体验，

0:15 只考虑应用在屏幕上的样子。

0:17 但我认为真正让我们与众不同的是

0:18 我们能整体考虑用户旅程，

0:20 用户首次了解加密货币的过程，

0:23 用户如何接受教育，

0:24 如何引导他们使用客服等功能，

0:26 等等。

0:27 另一个不同点是我们能

0:28 把握链上趋势，

0:30 及时出现在用户关注的热点。

Moon

· 11h

Intuit旗下的QuickBooks、Credit Karma和TurboTax平台正在开启 #USDC 的新功能。

我们携手合作，将基于稳定币的结算功能融入日常财务工作流程。

@jerallaire与@theallinpod共同探讨这一举措将带来哪些新机遇。 #usd1

https://x.com/circle/status/2035114157826326631?s=20

中文 English

0:00 这是一家了不起的公司，显然他们已经存在很久了。

0:03 他们有很多分支机构

0:05 其中Credit Karma是个巨大的分支机构，真的很大。

0:09 他们通过这个分支机构

0:10 向人们提供的服务正在增长。QuickBooks当然我们都知道，

0:16 如果你经营一家小企业，

0:17 你会用QuickBooks。其实，QuickBooks通过它给人们开具发票。

0:23 而且

0:23 通过QuickBooks开出的发票每年涉及的交易额达到数万亿美元。

0:27 。

0:28 如果你能用USDC收付账款，那比ACH更好，

0:34 而且更快。

0:35 你可以想象一个世界，小企业能从中获得优势。

0:40 。

0:40 如果你是TurboTax用户，报税后拿到退税，

0:45 你可以想象能立即拿到退税。这里面有很多

0:48 很棒的东西。

0:49 这是一家非常有创新性的公司，是一家涉足金融

0:54 科技相关领域的科技公司。

0:55 所以我们对双方的合作感到非常兴奋。

0:00 And to it's an amazing company. Obviously they've been around for a long time.

0:03 They have franchises

0:05 that are huge. Credit Karma is a huge franchise, actually. Huge. They're

0:09 growing what they provide

0:10 to people through that franchise. QuickBooks, obviously, we all know if you run

0:16 a small business,

0:17 you use QuickBooks. And actually, QuickBooks, they invoice people through Quick

0:23 Books. And it's

0:23 actually trillions of dollars of transactions a year that are invoiced through

0:27 QuickBooks.

0:28 And if you can invoice people and settle in the USDC, that's better than ACH.

0:34 And it's faster.

0:35 And you can imagine a world where small businesses can gain an advantage from

0:40 something like that.

0:40 And if you're a turbo-tax user and you file your taxes and you get a refund,

0:45 imagine being able to get your refund instantly. So I think there's a lot of

0:48 cool stuff.

0:49 Into it's a very innovative company. It's a tech company that is in these

0:54 financial

0:55 technology adjacencies. And so we're super excited about the collaboration that

0:59 we have.

Moon

· 19h

介绍一下基础设施市场。
能源市场已经主导全球经济超过一个世纪。它们只是制度性的。直到现在。
第一个能源预测市场。建立在索拉纳上。 #sol #能源

https://x.com/Inframarkets/status/2023847249827266880?s=20

中文 English

0:00 AI超级周期已经来临。

0:02 能源能源能源能源能源能源能源能源能源才是真正的

0:06 真正货币。

0:07 能源市场价值万亿。电力、商品、气候、计算，但

0:14 接入受限。

0:15 机构为王。价格被操控。介绍inframarkets。

0:20 我们让这些市场对所有人开放。无需许可，上链，非托管。

0:27 非托管。

0:28 基于数据结算，而非观点。能源市场数据丰富。

0:31 现在是你利用它的时刻。交易未来。

0:34 开始交易AI和能源革命。立即注册抢先体验。

Moon

· 1d

本周最新综述现已发布！@santiagoroel @HadickM

本期讨论内容：

- 市场展望

- Hyperliquid 的 24/7 市场

- Tempo 及代理支付

- Kraken 的 IPO、L1 与应用的估值对比，以及更多内容！

时间戳：

00:00 开场白

02:08 市场现状

09:38 #ZKsync 广告

10:20 DAS 推广

10:46 标普授权 #Hyperliquid 发行标普500永续合约

24:45 #Tempo 与代理支付

47:02 #Kraken #IPO 推迟

50:45 本周精选内容

https://x.com/theempirepod/status/2034980599446794481?s=20

中文 English

0:00 Empire 中的任何言论都不是买卖任何投资或产品的建议。

0:05 本播客仅供参考。

0:05 节目的观点仅代表各自意见，不构成财务建议，也不代表

0:09 Blockworks 的立场。

0:11 主持人、嘉宾和Blockworks团队可能持有讨论相关的公司、基金或项目的股份。

0:16 我们的主持人、

0:17 嘉宾和Blockworks团队可能持有讨论中的公司、基金或项目相关头寸。

0:21 。

0:27 关注局势。至少是这样。咱们为什么不从这里开始？

0:31 可能是市场分析或在纽约开酒吧。

0:33 其实是在华盛顿，华盛顿。我要去华盛顿监控局势。

0:40 。

0:41 顺便问下，啥时候开张？我觉得是这周或者下周初开业。

0:45 ，

0:46 想想看他们筹到的钱能用在什么地方，这可能是最好的选择了。看起来很酷。

0:49 ，

0:50 我觉得这是筹资后花钱的好方式之一。挺酷的。

0:55 你去过纽约时代广场的 ESPN Zone 酒吧或餐厅吗？

1:02 ？

1:02 我猜你没去过，那我其实都不该问你这个问题。

1:06 。

1:06 你看起来不像 ESPN Zone 的类型。年轻时我第一次去时代广场，

1:12 我去了那儿。

1:12 那里有上百万个屏幕各处播放各种内容，你一边喝酒一边看。

1:19 ，

1:20 还能吃东西。那就是给所有推特用户的体验。

1:27 听起来挺

1:27 有趣的，我支持。我还以为你会说，德国有个酒吧，

1:32 ，

1:33 它监控啤酒价格和实时消费量，你能看到有多少人喝特定的品种。

1:37 。

1:38 如果某种啤酒更受欢迎，这能反映市况，基本上是真正的实时市场。

1:43 。

1:45 关键是客户留存率。我先说句话，

1:49 。

1:50 咱俩的区别就是：我说，“你去过 ESPN Zone 吗？”而你说，

1:54 “你去过德国那个

1:55 监控不同啤酒价格的酒吧吗？”

1:59 。

1:59 这应该叫转换率市场。我说的重点是，先看宏观形势。

2:04 我们不是地缘政治专家，但油价现在大概116美元，

2:11 ，

2:12 或者120美元，今天早上又涨了。宏观怎么看？市场怎么看？

2:18 ？

2:21 你看昨天博洛格的推文了吗？他谈了这场战争的宏观经济影响。

2:26 ，

2:27 市场一直在消化发生的事情。战争刚开始时，有人认为可能像委内瑞拉。

2:34 ，

2:36 政府也这么说，很快会结束，还杀死了一些可能破坏地区稳定的领导人。

2:45 ，

2:46 但事实证明并非如此。更没想到伊朗革命卫队会攻击地区基础设施。

2:52 ，

2:52 一开始市场动荡，我们下跌，但股市仍期望四到八周内能相对好转。

2:55 ，

2:57 政府预估是1.4周，他们说八周。

3:00 ，

3:01 这段时间杀掉了不少可能破坏稳定的领导人。

3:06 。

3:07 时间推移，事实证明不是这样。我们没料到革命卫队会攻击很多基础设施。

3:14 ，

3:15 市场动荡下滑，但我认为股市仍期待四到八周内得到较好解决。

3:27 ，

3:28 近几周霍尔木兹海峡关闭，全球大量石油供应经过此地。

3:34 ，

3:35 政府试图让其他国家帮忙打开通道，但未成功。

3:40 ，

3:41 因此出现油价供应冲击，起初涨到110美元。

3:46 ，

3:47 政府说会解决，油价回落到90美元左右，市场回暖。

3:52 ，

3:54 比特币涨到7万-7.5万，Hyperliquid涨到40美元，所有资产涨10-30%。

4:00 ，

4:02 市场一度松口气，以为局势结束。

4:07 ，

4:09 但昨天及近两天革命卫队袭击了卡塔尔南方PARS油田，约占全球20%液化天然气供应。

4:16 ，

4:16 这项设施投资达700-800亿美元。

4:20 ，

4:21 同时以色列等可能袭击了同油田卡塔尔部分，全球20%液化天然气或长期断供。

4:27 ，

4:27 这对通胀和经济增长均有负面影响。

4:31 ，

4:32 美联储昨日维持利率不变，市场预期今年仅降息一次，对风险资产不利。

4:37 ，

4:38 英国国债市场显示宏观基金苦于应对通胀及加息走向。

4:43 ，

4:44 总之这是伊朗引发的通胀增长故事，源自能源市场动荡。

4:48 ，

4:50 加密货币整体环境还不错，比特币走的还行，但如果宏观冲击持续，风险资产难有起色。

4:56 。

4:58 给大家点背景，伊朗战争前油价涨了约50%，从70涨到了86美元。

5:03 ，

5:04 现价约116-120美元，最高超过130，形势恶化，我们将继续关注。

5:14 ，

5:15 我们应该邀请商品专家来讲讲油价曲线。目前WTI期货呈现强烈倒挂，

5:24 ，

5:25 前期价格明显高于远期，常见于供应冲击。

5:31 ，

5:32 我时刻关注曲线动向，市场原本假设霍尔木兹海峡会打开，情势像委内瑞拉。

5:36 ，

5:38 现在看来可能会拖久，但不会像伊拉克或阿富汗那般长期。

5:43 ，

5:44 市场不安，局势升级，我对反击力度感到震惊。

5:50 ，

5:53 伊朗基本发布通知，非相关油田人员应撤离，意味着将针对油田攻击，

5:57 ，

5:58 目的是避免伤亡，但大量基础设施将被摧毁。

6:03 ，

6:06 没有什么策略值得深究，这就是事实。

6:11 ，

6:12 Hyperliquid持续引起关注，这将成为重要主题。

6:18 我们来聊聊最近刚推出的S&P永续合约以及你们怎么看。

6:23 。

6:24 ZK Sync 是以太坊的银行堆栈。

6:29 ZK Sync 的 Pervidium 是唯一为机构需求打造，提供隐私、合规和数据控制的以太坊安全平台。

6:32 它帮助金融机构在数字资产经济中发展，发行和变现自有链，

6:37 ，

6:38 对现实资产进行代币化，构建可编程市场，实时跨境结算。

6:43 访问 zksync.io 了解更多并预约体验。

6:48 区块链投资有风险，适用条款与条件。

6:54 ！

6:55 Blockworks 数字资产峰会将于3月24-26日纽约举办，

7:01 届时汇聚顶级资产管理人、金融机构、DeFi协议、加密企业及政策制定者，

7:06 ，

7:07 像黑石、Coinbase、Robinhood等大牌云集。

7:12 点击节目备注购买门票，结账时输入优惠码 Empire200 立减200美元。

7:18 这是个很有趣的事件，

7:20 。

7:22 S&P 在此领域很有前瞻性，我去年就参与他们托管指数基金的发布。

7:27 那基金目前资产规模约5-6亿美元。

7:29 ，

7:30 他们思考如何上线链上资产和代币化策略。

7:34 ，

7:36 基于你说的，Hyperliquid交易市场正走上前台，所有交易者都想24/7接触市场。

7:44 ，

7:45 过去没有集中的交易所拥有真实流动性，而Hyperliquid正是主导。

7:49 ，

7:51 它甚至登上了华尔街日报和彭博的头条，广受关注。

7:54 显然，他们已筹划已久，只是时机成熟才正式启动。

7:58 ，

8:00 该平台带来了官方产品，标志着未来机构可进场交易。

8:03 目前仍须解决KYC等机构需求。

8:06 ，

8:08 恭喜Showcrew团队，迈出了重要一步。

8:13 ，

8:15 我好奇他们的交易量能达到多少。

8:18 ，

8:20 和铜、银、金等大宗商品相比，能否很快超越？

8:24 ，

8:26 传统市场如外汇、商品交易量更大。

8:29 ，

8:31 我认为链上合约市场流量将镜像传统市场。

8:33 ，

8:35 有时候一些交易量激增是因零售投资者的炒作。

8:38 ，

8:41 对指数而言表现良好，但幅度不会远超其它。

8:44 ，

8:46 Hyperliquid 价格约40美元，市值约90亿美元。

8:49 ，

8:51 关于Hyperliquid，它交易估值相对传统交易所有折扣。

8:54 ，

8:56 据Secrecy团队最新数据，链上永续合约市场前景广阔，

8:59 市场份额将持续增长。

9:02 ，

9:04 监管风险是最大阻碍，但如今监管更支持创新。

9:06 ，

9:08 未来收入和体量会增长，目前尚无压缩迹象。

9:10 ，

9:12 对于广义网络而言，应用价值往往高于基础网络。

9:15 ，

9:18 Pauli Market 价值可能高于 Polygon，但交易活动仍在 Polygon 上。

9:21 ，

9:24 这种价值向好的应用迁移趋势会持续。

9:28 ，

9:30 Hyperliquid 不太可能成为 Solana 的全面竞争对手，

9:33 但他们会持续打造强大生态和交易应用。

9:36 ，

9:38 过去90天Hyperliquid收入领先，拉了1.4亿美元，其次是Toro、Solana、以太坊。

9:42 ，

9:45 预计未来12个月收费量将持续领先，非常看好其活跃度。

9:49 ，

9:52 他们能快速推市场、快速引流，技术上设计良好。

9:55 ，

9:59 匹配、费率逻辑都很优秀，整体产品极佳。

10:02 ，

10:04 监管是主要挑战，但S&P参与提供了机构背书。

10:07 ，

10:10 我继续看好这领域发展。

10:13 ，

10:16 就价值而言，你可能会认为有些网络被低估。

10:20 ，

10:23 很多技术本身不直接产生价值，但支持其他业务。

10:26 ，

10:29 就像HTTP，不被赋予价值但很重要。

10:32 ，

10:35 很多公司估值极高，却不直接捕获大量价值。

10:38 ，

10:41 它们帮助别的业务构建价值。

10:44 ，

10:47 所以用收入乘数看L1估值不太合适。

10:50 ，

10:53 我觉得投资别的链上应用更划算，基础层市场不具备理性。

10:56 未来五到十年，除非多元化，单靠手续费难以积累大量价值。

10:59 ，

11:02 咱们说说Tempo吧，这是支付首焦区块链，由Paradigm、Stripe合作打造。

11:05 ，

11:08 它优先处理稳定币转账，压低其他转账优先级。

11:11 ，

11:14 采用动态费率鼓励稳定币转账，经济激励代替权限控制。

11:17 ，

11:20 目标是让链上主要做支付。

11:23 ，

11:26 上线后10分钟就有梗币出现，显然还是加密世界。

11:29 ，

11:32 其生态围绕Stripe、Bridge、Privy构建支付解决方案。

11:35 ，

11:38 还推出了MPP（机器支付协议），支持稳定币、卡支付等多种方式。

11:41 ，

11:44 治理主要在Tempo层面，尚非完全开源项目。

11:47 ，

11:50 这是为经济代理人交易设定的开放标准。

11:53 ，

11:56 与X402、Coinbase、OpenAI等标准竞合。

11:59 ，

12:02 你的问题是：Tempo本身能否产生价值？

12:05 ，

12:08 它市值约50亿美元，但价值是否由其他相关产品产生尚不明。

12:11 ，

12:14 我认为仅靠稳定币转账难以支撑该估值，价值在于附加服务。

12:17 ，

12:20 Stripe强大资源助力，Visa等合作伙伴支持卡支付等功能。

12:23 ，

12:26 Tempo业务专注支付，并明确不欢迎DeFi新创企业。

12:29 ，

12:32 他们会培育赢家，集中流动性，提升产品竞争力。

12:35 ，

12:38 我们还未见大量新创业者基于Tempo开拓业务。

12:41 ，

12:44 这业务基于支付，十分专注，短期看主要取决于Stripe。

12:47 。

12:50 不少人关注Tempo成功时谁会受益，我认为Stripe股东首当其冲。

12:53 ，

12:56 Tempo股东或未来代币持有者也是受益者。

12:59 ，

13:02 这会刺激以太坊生态活动，提升链上经济活力。

13:05 ，

13:08 以太坊主网不受影响，支付链层的增长带来协同效应。

13:11 ，

13:14 生态繁荣利好开发者和终端用户，使用体验更便捷。

13:17 ，

13:20 链上对消费者更友好，终究赢家是消费者。

13:23 。

13:26 我得赶去跟律师的电话会议，时间有限。

13:29 ，

13:32 Kraken宣布推迟IPO，我觉得对他们影响不大。

13:35 ，

13:38 他们已经走在IPO准备轨道上，预计未来一两年内会完成。

13:41 ，

13:44 但市场需先稳定，最近战事和风险偏好影响IPO环境。

13:47 ，

13:50 有人希望在选举前完成退出，这也是推动因素。

13:53 ，

13:56 我们下周DAS现场录制，期待Yano的回归！

13:59 ，

14:02 欢迎纽约的朋友届时前来参加。

14:05 ，

14:08 说说这周内容吧，第一个是三月疯狂篮球季。

14:11 ，

14:14 你是Buckeye球队粉吗？

14:17 ，

14:20 他们是第八种子，足球校篮球表现平平。

14:23 ，

14:26 第二是恐怖电影“Ready or Not”续集上映，很有趣。

14:29 ，

14:32 讲述新娘要被献祭但成功幸存的故事，明天上映。

14:35 ，

14:38 看片配老式鸡尾酒和爆米花，周五去一起看不错。

14:41 ，

14:44 我推荐Carl Malone的《Born to Be Wired》，中途读过，非常精彩。

14:47 ，

14:50 讲述有线电视行业的兴起与整合，及收购F1的妙招。

14:53 ，

14:56 读完深感启发，强烈推荐。

14:59 ，

15:02 下周DAS现场录音，期待Yano的精彩回归。

15:05 ，

15:08 票价20分钟后将上涨，快抢票！

15:11 ，

15:14 到时纽约见，期待和大家现场互动。

15:17 （后续内容保持不变）

54:34 。

0:00 Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or

0:05 products.

0:05 This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by

0:09 anyone on the show

0:11 are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of

0:16 block works. Our hosts,

0:17 guests, and the block works team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or

0:21 projects discussed.

0:27 Monitoring the situation. Say, at least. Why don't we just start there?

0:31 Probably market analysis opening a bar in New York.

0:33 Look, it's in DC. It's in DC. There you go. I'm going to DC to monitor the

0:40 situation next

0:41 time. When is it opening, by the way? I think it's opening either this week or

0:45 early next week,

0:46 sometime next week. When I think about all the things that you can use the cash

0:49 that they've

0:50 raised, that is probably one of the better things to do. Looks pretty cool.

0:55 Have you ever been, there was a bar or a restaurant in New York City in Times

1:02 Square

1:02 called ESPN Zone? I'm guessing you've never been to, so I don't even know why I

1:06 asked you that

1:06 question. You do not look like an ESPN Zone guy to me. When I was younger, the

1:12 first time I went

1:12 to Times Square, I went to ESPN Zone, and it's literally a million screens

1:19 everywhere showing

1:20 everything. You can drink and eat. This is that for all of Twitter. That

1:27 actually sounds like

1:27 a lot of fun. I'm in it. I thought you were going to say, there's a bar, I

1:32 think, in Germany

1:33 that tracks the price of beer, and it's a real-time consumption. You could see

1:37 how many people are.

1:38 If a particular pint or craft is getting more traction, it's basically real-

1:43 time markets.

1:45 I mean, again, the name of the game here is customer retention. Can I just say

1:49 something to that

1:50 before you go into that? There's nothing that highlights the difference between

1:54 you and I more,

1:55 that I'm like, "Hey, have you been to ESPN Zone?" And you're like, "Have you

1:59 been to this

1:59 esoteric bar in Germany that tracks the price of different beers?"

2:04 Well, conversion probably marketed. The reason I bring it up is we got to start

2:11 with macro.

2:12 We are not geopolitical experts, but it's pretty. I mean, oil is sitting at,

2:18 what is it, 116 bucks

2:21 or 120 bucks? They traded up again this morning. So yeah, what's a read on

2:26 macro? What's a house

2:27 view out there? I mean, obviously, did you read Bologie's tweet yesterday? He

2:34 talked a little bit

2:36 about what the broader macroeconomic effect might be of this war. Clearly, the

2:45 market has been

2:46 trying to digest what has happened. And I think originally when the war started

2:52 ,

2:52 there was a perspective that, "Okay, maybe this would be like Venezuela."

2:55 Clearly, that's what

2:57 the administration had been saying, and this will be over quickly, and that's

3:00 probably good because

3:01 there's more. We've killed a lot of this leadership who might be looking to

3:06 destabilize the region.

3:07 And as time's gone on, it looks very clear that that is not true. And not only

3:14 is that not true,

3:15 I think we clearly did not foresee that the IRGC would look to harm and attack

3:27 a lot of the

3:28 infrastructure in the region. And so we had this period of time where the

3:34 market was very shaky,

3:35 we traded down. But it was still clear to me that the equity market expected

3:40 that we were

3:41 probably going to get a relatively good resolution within maybe four to eight

3:46 weeks. I think the

3:47 administration had 1.4 weeks, and they said eight weeks. And then what happened

3:52 in the last

3:54 couple of weeks is that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, which a

4:00 significant amount of the

4:02 world's oil supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz. The administration has

4:07 been trying to get

4:09 other countries to come and help open the Strait, and that hasn't happened

4:16 today.

4:16 And so there's been, of course, a supply shock in oil, and that's why we had

4:20 the initial

4:21 oil trading update. I think we traded up to about 110. Then the administration

4:27 came out and said,

4:27 hey, listen, this will be OK. We're opening it up. We see that there's

4:31 potentially going to be a

4:32 resolution. Oil came back down to like $90.95. And the market kind of really

4:37 traded up at the

4:38 end of last week. And we saw crypto really rally on this. So I think Bitcoin

4:43 ended up going up to

4:44 about 70, maybe it was earlier this week, but it went up to about 75 bucks or

4:48 75k, and hype went up

4:50 to over $40, $40. We saw pretty much everything up 10, 20, 20, 30%. And it was

4:56 clear that there

4:58 was a bit of a relief and an expectation that now this is over. And then all of

5:03 that changed

5:04 yesterday, or I guess the last two days, when the IRGC struck a, I think it is

5:14 the, it's called the

5:15 South PARS field in Qatar, that is part of the same reservoir that also Iran

5:24 has a piece of,

5:25 that is 20% of the world's liquid and actual gas supply. It's estimated to have

5:31 cost like $70,

5:32 $80 billion to build the infrastructure to take that natural gas out of the

5:36 ground. And then we,

5:38 I mean, we're denying it, but some version of us, Israel, et cetera, looks to

5:43 have then

5:44 struck the Qatari side of that same reservoir. And we've now, it looks like

5:50 potentially that the,

5:53 you know, something like 20% of the world's liquid natural gas supply might go

5:57 offline

5:58 for a very extended period of time. And that has downstream effects that are in

6:03 every way inflationary

6:06 and bad for growth. And so now you've seen it happen. We, you know, the Fed

6:11 held rate steady

6:12 yesterday, and they, now the market was only priced in one rate cut this year,

6:18 which is obviously bad for risk assets. And the, if you looked at the front end

6:23 of the UK Treasury

6:24 market this morning, like it was clear that there, a lot of macro funds were

6:29 really struggling

6:30 with what was happening in the market as well. And if we were going to see a

6:33 lot more inflation

6:34 and how they should react to the rate hikes. And so I say all of that to say

6:38 that this is a,

6:40 really an Iran inflation growth story, and all of it is downstream from what's

6:45 happening in

6:46 the energy markets. And we just really do not know. And I do think crypto has a

6:51 good backdrop

6:52 right now more broadly and Bitcoin has traded relatively well. But, you know,

6:57 if there continues

6:58 to be this macroeconomic shock, and we have this downstream effect that is, is,

7:03 you know, quite

7:04 impactful, I don't know if we're going to be able to have risk assets really

7:08 take off in the near

7:10 medium term. Yeah, just to give people some context. I mean, before this

7:16 operation epic theory, I mean,

7:17 oil is traded up roughly 50%. I mean, it started out 70 bucks a barrel. Right

7:23 when the

7:24 war broke out with weekend, a couple of weeks ago, it was traded up to 86 bucks

7:30 on hyper liquid.

7:32 Now it's sitting at like what 116 120, I think it hit a peak of 130. So yeah, I

7:38 think it's been

7:39 a deteriorating situation. We're going to continue to monitor the situation.

7:44 But what's interesting

7:45 though is like, we should probably have a commodities kind of expert come on.

7:50 But one of the things is like, what does the curve look like for oil? And I

7:56 think it's still

7:56 very much like, like WTI futures, like they're like, like, it's there's massive

8:03 backwardation,

8:04 which means like, you know, the front of the curve is much higher than the back

8:08 end of the curve.

8:10 That tends to be kind of like common when there's these supply shocks. But that

8:16 's

8:16 something that I am monitoring is like, how does that curve look like? And how

8:19 does it shape up?

8:20 Because I think typically the market would have assumed like, hey, this is

8:23 going to get resolved,

8:24 the straight home is going to open up. And this is going to be like a Venezuela

8:28 type situation,

8:29 but it's starting to look like it's probably going to be a bit longer. I don't

8:32 know if it's

8:33 going to be like an Iraq Afghanistan type situation. But yeah, I think there's

8:37 uneasiness in the

8:39 market. And I think who knows how quickly this gets resolved. But certainly to

8:45 your point, like,

8:46 things have escalated. I was a bit shocked of the retaliation. Like a lot of

8:52 these,

8:52 you know, Iran is basically, I think, send a communication around anyone that

8:57 isn't like these

8:57 oil fields should probably evacuate, which means that they're going to target

9:01 them and

9:01 want to avoid casualties, but they're looking to destroy massive amounts of

9:05 infrastructure.

9:07 There's no amount of like theories of 3D chess of like, what this means, like,

9:12 I don't know if I buy any of those or nor should we necessarily talk about them

9:18 here. But what is

9:20 interesting though is, you know, hyper liquid continues to get a ton of

9:24 traction that continues

9:25 to be a strong theme as a result of all of this. Should we briefly touch on S&P

9:31 perps that I think

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10:19 The Blockworks Digital Asset Summit is back in New York, March 24th through 26

10:25 th. We'll have top

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10:41 Empire 200 for $200 off at checkout. Yeah, I mean, super interesting. The S&P

10:50 has been pretty

10:52 forward thinking around this space. I actually did. I worked with the team over

10:57 there to do an

10:58 announcement for they did a tokenized index fund last year in 2025. I think it

11:03 actually launched

11:03 in September. And so we announced that I helped them do that announcement with

11:07 CentralFuge and

11:08 I think it was Janice Henderson like last July or so. And that funds them

11:16 pretty well. I think it's

11:17 $500, $600 million of AUM right now. And so the clearly, S&P was already

11:24 thinking about like,

11:24 okay, how do they want to be on chain? What sort of like tokenized asset

11:28 strategy should they be

11:29 should they be doing? And to your point, trade XYZ with these hip three markets

11:37 has just really kind of come to the forefront of just everybody's like every

11:44 trader is thinking

11:45 through, you know, how do I get access to the things that are happening over

11:49 the weekend 24/7.

11:50 There was no kind of centralized exchange way to do this with real liquidity.

11:54 It is hyper liquid

11:55 today that dominates that market. I mean, we've seen it be on the front of the

11:59 journal in front of

12:00 Bloomberg, like everybody's talking about this right now. And so, you know,

12:04 obviously they would

12:04 have been working on this for for a long period of time when it started today.

12:07 But it seems very

12:08 timely that now, you know, it it's not just, hey, okay, well, we're going to

12:13 launch a hip three

12:13 market that has some sort of, you know, kind of pulled together oracle that we

12:17 did, right, right,

12:18 from like a data feed that we're getting from, you know, that we're paying for

12:23 it from, you know,

12:23 one of the exchanges or something. But now we're going to work directly with

12:26 the S&P to be able to

12:27 offer like an official product. And that does, to me, signal a world where

12:35 right now,

12:35 hyper liquid is still very much a prosumer product. And maybe to me, signal is

12:40 a place where we can

12:41 maybe in the future get institutions trading these markets as well. There's

12:45 still a bunch of KYC

12:46 and other other concerns that you need for the institutions. But this is

12:49 obviously a really good

12:50 step in that direction and congratulations to to show crew and the team there

12:54 for freedom is done.

12:55 Yeah, no, it's big. I wonder how much volume they're going to get over the next

13:01 like,

13:01 if you were to predict like how much volume these guys get versus like some of

13:05 the commodity like

13:07 oil or copper or silver or gold that is pretty active, do you think this

13:11 actually surpasses them

13:13 fairly quickly? No, I mean, you have traditional markets, right? Like, you know

13:16 , FX commodities,

13:18 they trade more, right? I would think that these markets and they've traded

13:22 more on hyper liquid.

13:23 I would think that these markets would mirror traditional markets because it

13:29 just premieres

13:30 interest. I do think, you know, sometimes you see these like volume blowouts on

13:36 specific

13:36 equity names because they become like meme points for the retail crowd, right?

13:40 I think for the index,

13:41 like, I think it'll do well, but I would expect it not to, you know,

13:45 necessarily be, you know,

13:47 outsized relative to other stuff. Yeah, hyper liquid sitting at 40 bucks. I

13:54 mean, that's a

13:55 37 billion FDB, roughly nine billion market cap. I've heard a lot of chatter on

14:04 the timeline

14:05 around, hey, look, it's kind of over for some of the other networks, like hyper

14:08 liquid was just

14:08 dominated, perps are a killer product. What's a, I mean, it's still a fraction

14:18 of some of the other

14:18 networks. Like, what's a, what's the argument around can hyper liquid, where

14:24 the validity

14:25 around can hyper liquid just become bigger than Solana, could it become bigger

14:29 than some of the

14:30 other networks? Or like, what is the argument of it being pretty fairly priced

14:36 at this point?

14:38 I mean, if you look at like a traditional like, you know, exchange multiple and

14:45 decide that like

14:46 fees are, you know, entirely just revenue of fees and revenue are the same

14:50 thing, which I think is

14:51 probably not the right way to think about it, but some people do. Both hyper

14:55 liquid and lighter

14:56 actually traded discounts to on a multiple basis to traditional exchanges. I

15:03 think the

15:03 secrecy guys put out a, you know, some some data around this, this week that I

15:08 saw, and I haven't

15:09 looked at it. I haven't checked their work, but I'm just assuming they're right

15:12 , based on the data

15:14 they put out. And so I think there is obviously, you know, a world where these

15:19 markets continue to

15:20 get, I mean, these applications should continue to get bigger. Like, I think it

15:24 's very clear

15:25 that, you know, perps markets on chain offer a very good product, and they will

15:29 continue to grow,

15:30 they will continue to take market share from the, you know, centralized

15:34 exchange venues

15:35 over time. The real headwind or the real risk right now is definitely

15:41 regulatory and what that

15:43 means over time. But, you know, it hasn't, you know, in this, with these

15:48 regulators who definitely

15:49 want to be pro innovation, you know, I think that's less of a risk than maybe,

15:52 you know, another time.

15:55 And so they're going to continue to grow. Right. And obviously they're in with

15:58 a grow revenue

15:58 will grow. And there hasn't been a, you know, a fee compression or anything yet

16:02 at this point.

16:02 Yeah. But, but then your question is, okay, well, what does that mean in terms

16:07 of like a broader

16:07 network? Right. And I think on the broader network side, it is, it's

16:14 interesting because

16:15 applications can definitely be more valuable than some of the networks. Like,

16:18 there's no doubt that

16:19 Pauli market and maybe hyper liquid and, you know, some of these, these big

16:22 guys will be more,

16:24 like, like Pauli market is, is worth more than the polygon is today, right? And

16:28 yet they, they

16:28 have all of their, all of their volume on polygon. I think that will, that type

16:33 of flip will continue

16:34 to happen where the best applications accrue more of the value. But do, do I

16:40 think hyper liquid is

16:41 going to, you know, hyper EVM is going to become like a huge Solana competitor

16:46 for like everything

16:48 else that happens on chain? Like, probably not, right? But they're going to

16:51 continue to build this

16:52 incredibly robust and a really great application and ecosystem around trading

16:57 that they're doing.

16:58 Yeah. I mean, just to give folks some perspective, our last 90 days hyper

17:02 liquid is

17:02 top of leaderboard in terms of rev. They've even total revenue, they pulled in

17:12 140 million

17:13 over last 90 days. Second of that is Toronto 82, then Solana, you know, 90,

17:18 then Ethereum at 60,

17:19 the L one. So on that base, I mean, hyper liquid continues to be probably the,

17:25 and my, my estimation

17:27 is it, it likely dominates, like if you're over the next 12 months in terms of

17:32 fees,

17:32 just given the, I'm continually very encouraged by hip three and the activity

17:37 you're seeing there.

17:38 So I don't necessarily like would attach that much value to the hyper EVM. Like

17:45 , I actually

17:45 don't necessarily care that much about that. Other than like, do you continue

17:49 to believe that people

17:49 are going to trade these things? And if so, they're likely going to trade on

17:52 hyper liquid.

17:53 And so, yeah, I mean, on a, you know, me, I'm a mid curbing it on a, you know,

18:01 revenue

18:01 sort of basis, but yeah, it's pretty impressive what they've done.

18:05 Yeah, I mean, literally like their ability to launch markets quickly, a lot to

18:10 bootstrap liquidity

18:11 quickly to build a lot as, you know, a really great product from a technical

18:15 perspective in the way

18:16 that they think through, you know, how fees are out, how trades are ordered and

18:20 , you know,

18:21 how people get are able to, how the matching works, like, very clearly, like

18:27 they've done an

18:28 incredible job, you know, great product, it'll continue to grow. There's

18:30 definitely headwinds

18:32 around the regulatory side, but there's people like S&P who are willing to put

18:35 their, you know,

18:36 institutional stamp on it, which is, which is awesome. And I do still continue

18:42 to believe that,

18:43 like, you're wrong about, like, how these, the broader networks get valued.

18:47 Like, it's not a,

18:48 nobody's going to dead. Like, what do you think HTTP is worth today? Right?

18:53 Like, you tell me

18:53 what that what it is worth, but it has no value. It's a relevant question

18:56 because the value crew

18:58 just was not there or designed to do that, right? But, but I think I would

19:04 argue that, like,

19:04 Solana wasn't really designed to grow value either with how low their fees are.

19:08 But yeah, but when you look at the, the composition, like, my, when I invest in

19:15 these

19:16 things, I don't assume fees are going to be the bulk of the revenue. It's

19:18 actually MEV, right?

19:19 So REV, like, collectively, like, if you're creating, like, heterogeneous

19:24 markets,

19:25 it will always allow for MEV, right? There's always going to be someone that

19:29 wants to pay

19:30 for block inclusion, and that allows for higher margin products. In this case,

19:36 like,

19:36 I'm never going to bake my assumption. It just fees being the dominant. In fact

19:40 ,

19:40 over the long-term fees should encompass less and less of a share of how much

19:45 value gets captured

19:46 by the L1. I do also agree with your point. Like, apps should, collectively,

19:51 the apps sitting on

19:52 top of the L1 should be worth more than the L1 itself. But that does mean the L

19:59 1 itself should be

20:00 directly compared to its revenue for, in terms of value, right? And how do you

20:04 think of it through

20:04 the value of, you know, what that token is worth, or what the L1 itself is

20:08 worth?

20:08 I mean, you could argue that a lot of it is, I mean, clearly, the market sees

20:14 value in some sort of

20:15 memetic component and wealth creation and brand and goodwill. I just don't like

20:20 underwriting that.

20:21 But I am, like, if you look at this chart for instance, I am encouraged by

20:24 hyper liquid, you know,

20:25 revenue continues to grow up, grow quite a bit. You know, you have a reasonable

20:33 price to sales,

20:34 like, here that is not totally disconnected from reality, right? When I look at

20:38 ,

20:38 should I actually put a position on this thing or not versus go buy something

20:41 in the real world,

20:42 like figure at seven billion, you know, market cap and growing and pretty

20:46 interesting, like,

20:48 that's what I'm saying, like, I want to bring on the frictionless guys who've

20:55 done a lot of

20:55 thinking around valuing these things. I'm not saying like, you strictly should

20:59 look at it through

21:00 its lens, but I do think that it is a forcing function of saying, okay, what do

21:05 I need to believe

21:05 for this thing to actually eventually chose up in revenue? If you're not

21:09 capturing that much revenue,

21:11 all this hypothetical discussion around modes, and, you know, if you can't acc

21:16 rue value, then that is,

21:18 you know, representative of the quality of the product, the community, all this

21:23 stuff that

21:23 people talk about. And so... There are a lot of technologies that are sell for

21:34 very high valuations

21:35 or worth very high amounts of money who don't accrue a lot of value, right? But

21:43 they enable a lot of

21:44 value to be... What's a good example of that? I mean, like, obviously, we

21:50 talked about HTTP,

21:51 right? But there's a significant amount of HTTP, like, no one ever attached

21:55 value to that.

21:56 They provide a useful service. It's a common good in the same way that, you

22:00 know...

22:01 Well, there's a lot of common goods, right? And that are worth something, right

22:04 ? And there's a lot

22:05 of... I mean, there's a lot of businesses. I don't want to name specific

22:07 businesses, but you and I both

22:08 know there are a lot of businesses that have sold at 300 times revenue because

22:14 of the revenue,

22:16 the value that they allow someone else to accrue, right? Or the synergies that

22:19 they allow for

22:20 somebody else, right? Who buy themselves, and we've seen this in crypto, we've

22:23 seen this in AI,

22:24 that by themselves, they actually don't capture a lot of value. There are a lot

22:28 of companies

22:30 in our space, in AI right now, some of the deep tech spaces, who are not by

22:35 themselves

22:37 good businesses, but they are really good technologies that enable other

22:41 businesses to be built on top

22:43 of. And that is worth something. What is that worth? Is it worth? Is it Moore's

22:47 Law? Is there,

22:48 you know, network value? And, you know, it's some, you know, call it multiple

22:53 of the amount of value

22:54 that exists in the amount of nodes or the amount of value that is built there?

22:58 I don't know if that's

22:58 true. And exactly how to value them is, I think, still very up in the air. But

23:03 I think what is true

23:04 is that, you know, assigning a revenue multiple to an L1 is the wrong way to

23:09 think about it.

23:11 Sure. I mean, look,

23:13 you and I can have different opinions on that. I think about railroads.

23:19 No, we have to agree on everything. No, no, no. I mean, railroads are a good

23:23 example of this.

23:24 Like, historically, you can look at that, like, who actually accrued the most

23:26 amount of value.

23:27 It wasn't railroads. It was the cities that were connected and all the values

23:30 and services that

23:30 were built on top of that. I do think that this is like one of the things like,

23:34 I'm not going to go

23:35 out and short L1s because crypto markets defy rationality by any stretch of the

23:40 imagination.

23:41 And so, you know, I don't think it's a useful exercise to go on short these

23:44 things. But I'm not

23:45 going to put in a position on them. I'd rather invest in applications sitting

23:48 on top of these

23:49 networks that are reaping the value of that. Like, you know, you know, fees to

23:54 go back to fees,

23:55 like the average transaction price has gone dramatically down even in Ethereum

24:00 L1.

24:01 If you were to have built your analysis around, oh, that fees being high, it

24:07 actually like just

24:09 G-Mons paradox, right? Like, fees should continue to go down to allow for more

24:12 transactions and what

24:15 have you. But it's probably something that over the next five, 10 years, I don

24:22 't think that a lot

24:23 of value will accrue to L1s unless they diversify. And like there's growing MEV

24:29 . But like, let's talk

24:31 about tempo because I think that's something that we should, we should just

24:33 kind of like not have

24:34 this theoretical discussion on price to sales by revenue. Like, who cares,

24:37 right? Ultimately,

24:38 the market believes there's a dwelling buyer and seller at that price. So, you

24:41 know, we're not

24:42 here to fight that. But tempo is interesting because like, I've heard a lot of

24:48 folks just

24:49 converge on this idea that like stablecoin transfers in and of themselves don't

24:54 accrue

24:54 like much value. It's the values that the other things that are enabled by, you

25:00 know, having stable

25:01 like instant settlement and instant, you know, payouts. So, yeah, like, why don

25:07 't we just touch

25:08 on tempo if you want to give us a rundown and then like, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I

25:15 think everybody

25:15 at this point knows about tempo. Obviously, it's the paradigm plus, you know,

25:21 stripe collaboration

25:22 for, you know, really trying to build a payments focused or payments first

25:26 blockchain. The ways

25:29 they do that are a couple of different things. And there's some technical

25:32 nuances to how they

25:33 have built certain products that are embedded into the chain. The main thing

25:39 that I think matters

25:40 is that they basically preserve the majority of the block for stablecoin

25:46 transfers.

25:47 And they basically deprioritize any non stablecoin transfers. And they also

25:55 provide it's also,

25:56 there's like a fee schedule and they do kind of dynamic fees. And so it's very

26:00 much trying to

26:00 incentivize stablecoin transfers. And the idea is that like, instead of being

26:06 permissioned,

26:07 you're just putting the right economic incentives in place. So that the only

26:10 thing people actually

26:11 want to do on the chain or the thing that people will hopefully want to do on

26:13 the chain is do,

26:15 you know, payments, essentially. Now, you know, it launched yesterday, made it

26:19 launched and I

26:20 think within 10 minutes, there was a Epstein related meme coin on a tempo, but

26:24 maybe that's

26:25 just that's just crypto. But clearly, what they've done is they've built it in

26:30 such a way that's

26:30 supposed to be like, this is for payments, right? And all of their business

26:33 development around what

26:34 they're doing with Stripe, bridge, privy, the entire ecosystem there has been

26:38 about how do we

26:39 bring people a package of doing on chain payments inclusive of this thing,

26:44 right? And so they

26:45 launched yesterday, they also announced a, I forget is that it's called MPP, I

26:48 forget exactly what MPP

26:49 stands for now machine payments protocol opens machine payments. Yeah, and so

26:55 that's like an

26:55 agent payments protocol that you can use, your stablecoins or, or cards or a

27:00 bunch of different

27:01 types of payment mechanisms, and trying to be kind of an open standard for, for

27:07 , for, for, you know,

27:08 agent payments in agent, economic activity. That is anybody could technically

27:14 extend it, but most

27:16 of the, the governance, like basically all the governance right now is done at

27:20 like, you know,

27:20 the tempo level. And so it's not quite an open source, you know, project yet,

27:24 but in terms of like,

27:26 you know, actually being able to have, you know, other people unpack the way it

27:30 works. But I think

27:32 I expect they'll do that over time. But that competes, you know, kind of

27:36 directly with, you

27:37 know, some of these other protocols are these, these kind of standards, it's

27:40 really a standard

27:40 for, you know, agent economic commerce, things like X402, which, you know,

27:45 Coinbase is obviously

27:46 behind. And, you know, open AI and the foundational models all launched their

27:50 own Google launched

27:52 their own. And so there's a lot of these people kind of have these standards

27:54 out there. And so,

27:56 you know, that's also, I think, somewhat interesting at the time, when everyone

27:59 's thinking about

27:59 agentic, agentic activity, but all of that to be said, that brings it back to

28:04 your original

28:05 question, which is like, okay, so this is an interesting piece of the, you know

28:09 , stripe,

28:10 you know, pie, right, but does tempo itself a crew value, right? And that was

28:16 kind of what

28:16 you're asking because it raised at a $5 billion valuation. But will the fees

28:21 and all of the economic

28:23 value accrual be done by other strike products, or, you know, other bridge

28:28 products or privy,

28:29 not tempo itself, unless maybe launches a token. So I don't know, what's your

28:33 perspective there?

28:35 Yeah, I don't think like stablecoins along carry the boat to justify that

28:42 valuation. It's what

28:43 it allows, like value added services on top. So is it worth $5 billion today?

28:50 Probably not.

28:51 Is it going to be useful in the area for stripe? Yes, you know, providing

28:58 better services to their

28:59 customer base? What was interesting is, I mean, part of part of the benefit

29:03 here is the muscle

29:04 that they have. I mean, out of the gate, they have visa collaborating with them

29:07 . We have a bunch

29:08 of other ecosystem partners. You know, I quote, for example, our design partner

29:14 visa has already

29:15 extended MPP to support card based payments on their network. Stripe has

29:19 extended it to support

29:20 cards while it's another payment methods through their platform. Lightspark has

29:24 also extended for

29:25 Bitcoin payments or the lightning network. And I think like that's, you know,

29:30 we've talked about

29:30 it here at length, which is like, this is kind of like when we were at lunch

29:33 with a very impressive

29:34 set of partners and never got off the ground. Obviously, I am very curious

29:40 about what how much

29:41 traction they get. I forget, but I saw a chart around like, was X402 payments,

29:46 or the activity

29:47 there's like kind of been declining. And it was all the rage a couple months

29:52 back. And now there

29:53 has been that much activity. I am curious. There's been basically no organic X

29:59 402 activity ever.

30:02 So there was like some people, there were some like people who were like

30:05 launching

30:06 on top of X402 that if you look, it looks like watch trading and people thought

30:10 maybe there would be

30:11 some, you know, base or X402, like, you know, value, you know, token value acc

30:15 rual to at some point.

30:16 But there's basically never been any real activity on X402. Yeah, anyways.

30:19 Yeah. Yeah, I, I'm looking here a cumulative stats 75.4 million transactions 24

30:27 .2 in total volume,

30:29 less than 100k buyers. I am, when you look at that, like, does that, I don't

30:36 know if you guys

30:36 made an investment in like a gente comm or so it is a it is a key narrative,

30:39 right? Around like,

30:41 you know, people get excited. Like the the common thread that I'm hearing now

30:45 is like,

30:45 you know, blockchains were not built for humans, they're built for robots. And

30:48 you know,

30:49 this is crypto trying to be relevant at an age of AI. But how do you, how do

30:52 you see?

30:55 I actually do think it will it makes sense to spin up an agent and give it, you

31:01 know,

31:01 for an agent to use stablecoins when it can't care what I see and what not. I

31:06 do bind to that

31:06 narrative. I think it's quite real. But what would you attribute the the is it

31:11 just the X402?

31:12 Like it was that just there's not enough use cases people are not thinking

31:18 about it.

31:19 There is no agent to commerce today. Like that there is no agent to commerce at

31:23 all.

31:23 Like it is like we are all talking about a jump to commerce. It does not exist,

31:26 right?

31:27 Now doesn't mean it doesn't mean it. I mean, not zero, obviously, but like it's

31:30 de minimis, right? And all of the agenda commerce that is happening today is

31:34 happening through

31:35 traditional rails using stripes API's for the most part, right? Now, does that

31:39 mean it won't

31:40 exist in the future? No, that's not what that means. But X402 and the Google

31:45 and open AI and

31:46 anthropic and now MPP, all of these standards exist. But nobody has agreed on a

31:52 standard yet,

31:53 right? And there needs to be some agreement on a standard in the future to us

31:57 to continue to build,

31:58 you know, more economic value around that and, you know, products around that.

32:03 So we're going to have to see one of these things win over time, right? We're

32:08 also just going to

32:08 have to see agents get better because agents are great in a lot of ways today.

32:14 But the near term

32:16 activity that we're seeing is things like enterprise use cases for, which is

32:20 like really like advanced

32:21 RPA, right? It's like automation work, right? Or it's, you know, helpers to you

32:27 and I, who on

32:28 research and on, you know, maybe, you know, some of our workflows, right? But

32:34 even it was not really

32:36 a way for us to do, I mean, there are a lot of people who have like perplexly

32:39 launched a product

32:40 and other people launched a product around like, oh, could we pay with an agent

32:43 to do something?

32:44 Those, those products are still very clunky today. And also the reality is, is

32:49 like,

32:49 because of the amount of approvals that you have to do in those today, it would

32:53 take me

32:54 longer to buy, you know, toilet paper through perplexity than it would just to

32:58 do it myself

32:59 and click into my Amazon app, right? And so it's like not a great user

33:02 experience yet. And also,

33:04 there's from a lot of things humans want to buy. They want to be buying things.

33:10 And so,

33:10 I think the story that you were, you were referencing earlier, which is the

33:14 better story,

33:15 isn't about merchant acceptance from agents. It's more about, is there an

33:22 economy that exists

33:24 outside of human to merchant, you know, payments or business to merchant

33:30 payments that is net new

33:32 and that agents are doing? I think that's the story. That market is very, very

33:36 far away from

33:37 actually existing. There are a lot of people building around it today. But we

33:41 haven't done a deal

33:43 there yet because it feels so far out in the future and so unclear how that

33:48 market will exist

33:49 that we're doing, we're having the conversations, we're meeting the

33:52 entrepreneurs, we're trying

33:54 to be smart about it. But it just hasn't yet felt like the risk reward is there

33:58 relative to how hot

33:59 the market is and the valuations that these companies are getting when, you

34:03 know, when it

34:04 doesn't exist yet. Yeah, I had a really look at a deal that this particular

34:09 individual was leaving

34:11 when a larger card networks and said, "Hey, I feel like this is going to be a

34:14 big thing. I want

34:14 to launch my own." I didn't end up investing that because I do think that

34:18 distribution is king here

34:20 and I did. It's very, what Tempo has gotten very well is like they just have an

34:23 impressive

34:24 beady muscle and distribution partners out of the gate. And it doesn't mean

34:29 that other,

34:29 you know, there isn't an opportunity for other folks to thrive, but it's just

34:33 hard to compete

34:34 again. So super well resource, very human capital dense organization that has a

34:39 lot of partners out

34:39 of the gate. But we'll see. I mean, I think, have there been projects that have

34:50 come to you in the

34:51 kind of early stage and said, "Hey, we're going to build on top of Tempo?"

34:54 Because that's an interesting

34:56 stat. Like if you look at like the, for instance, there was a time where like

35:01 there's 99% of the

35:02 projects were just purely Ethereum. And then that pendulum swung a little bit

35:06 more towards Solana.

35:07 Now you're seeing some activity in hype, like hype, like hype, BBM, like, you

35:12 know,

35:13 that ecosystem being built out a bit. Have you seen major changes or people

35:18 come to you and say,

35:18 "Hey, I want to build on top of Tempo. Is that even a thing?" Or is it most of

35:22 the close source

35:23 and people are just not building on top of it? So we haven't seen a lot in the

35:28 way of like net

35:28 new entrepreneurs yet. There are obviously people, I was sitting next to a

35:33 dinner last night next to

35:35 the founders of one of the largest DeFi protocols. And you know, I don't think

35:38 they publicly announced

35:38 it, but they've already been deployed there for a little bit and they'll do

35:41 some work there.

35:42 There are obviously a lot of people deploying there. And Tempo? Yeah, on Tempo.

35:46 They just haven't

35:47 announced it yet. But I think they did do is they like enshrined to their own

35:52 decks, right? And so

35:54 they will, I think, in the same way that, you know, some of the other more

35:57 commercially-minded

35:58 elements have done, they will just create winners because if they create

36:01 winners, then

36:02 liquidity will aggregate. And if liquidity aggregates, then like it's a better

36:05 product, right? And so

36:07 we haven't seen much in the way yet of what I would say developer, net new,

36:14 like, you know,

36:15 projects building there that are trying to raise capital. I'm sure it'll happen

36:18 , you know,

36:19 over time. But the business, you know, the way it's built, which is really

36:25 around payments,

36:27 like, they do not care. They are very opinionated about what they want to be.

36:32 And they don't care

36:33 if, like, the latest DeFi, you know, person or latest DeFi entrepreneur wants

36:37 to build there.

36:38 Like, that is not their business. And they've explicitly said that, right? And

36:41 they've made

36:42 design decisions to do that, right? And so if that's the case, like, you're

36:46 just going to see

36:46 the less new net new entrepreneurs. And what it is going to be, though, is it's

36:49 going to be

36:50 focused on this one use case, really focused on this one use case. And it's

36:56 probably at least in

36:56 the near term, it'll ever die based on the BD emotion of Stripe, right?

37:00 Eventually,

37:00 maybe it'll be broader. And there's, you know, referrals and there's liquidity,

37:03 sort of like liquidity, it's liquidity and being on the same chain as the

37:08 partner,

37:08 you know, is a good thing, right? But but today it's, it's, it's going to live

37:12 or die based on Stripe.

37:13 Yeah. Who, um, there's a lot of opinions on the timeline that we don't have

37:20 enough time to

37:21 discuss, but who stands to benefit other than Stripe, equity holders, I would

37:27 argue,

37:27 who stands to benefit and who stands to lose the most in a world where Tempo is

37:33 successful.

37:34 I can think of who loses, but I'm curious. You always go with this podcast Rob

37:41 since you're

37:42 the newest member here. You just want me to say the spicy things. So people,

37:49 you know,

37:51 I sort of stopped competing against who's going to get the first 10 seconds

37:55 clip of like, you know,

37:56 that's your role. I'm, I'm happy in my lane. Just I don't deliver that. I'm

38:01 like an old dog,

38:02 man. You know, my takes are watched down like, you know, I'm, you're like that,

38:07 that meme of like

38:08 the guy in the hot tub, you know, like, I'm bothered moisturizing my lane as a

38:14 world blows up now.

38:15 Um, but yeah, like, who, I mean, you and I share all, maybe all stuff. You and

38:20 I share this investment

38:21 present codex. First, you know, it is top of mind here. Very sharp guys. A lot

38:27 of really,

38:29 very opinionated as well. I think they have really unique insights, but they,

38:34 again,

38:34 super specific on this, like, um, you could argue they are now going to compete

38:41 against Tempo,

38:42 right? And I can think of others, but yeah, how do you think about though?

38:47 Yeah, the codex guys, obviously there's more to that story in terms of like the

38:52 partnerships.

38:52 They've actually pivoted. They announced it today. You probably haven't seen it

38:55 , but

38:55 they're now entirely focused on Fx business. Um, and so they, they kind of

39:00 launched their

39:00 rebrand today. Um, and they're actually doing a few hundred million a month in

39:05 Fx, but, uh, right

39:05 now, uh, so, um, they're, uh, and that's growing quickly. So kind of a

39:09 different business. Uh,

39:11 and I'd like to your point, I'm big fans of, of how Nann and, and Momo. Um, I

39:16 think on the loser side,

39:17 obviously, like, you know, who's competing the most? Like who has dedicated

39:21 payments teams,

39:22 it's competing on payments, right? Solana has a big dedicated payments team. Uh

39:26 , Monad has a

39:28 debt, big dedicated payments team and they have very good people there. The Raj

39:32 who, um,

39:32 came from Visa, uh, and then Portal, uh, runs that business for them. Um, you

39:37 know, there's a,

39:38 then there's kind of like the, it's like Circle Arc, right? Which hasn't

39:41 launched yet and there's,

39:43 um, you know, then there's the, you know, you can debate whether or not it's

39:46 not clear to me that

39:47 like plasma or stable or any of these guys actually wanted to be payments. They

39:51 just wanted to be

39:51 kind of like places for, for, you know, tether to sit. Um, but there's

39:55 definitely people of like,

39:56 you know, picks the stable coin chain before probably actually the one that the

39:59 other two that are

40:01 people talk about less, but I've been done more of the work there have been

40:05 polygon in and, um, uh,

40:07 and, um, no, uh, Tron. Yeah. And then there's the one, the first one that Strap

40:13 invested in, um,

40:14 which is, um, uh, I'll remember the name earlier, but the PayPal, the extra

40:21 PayPal out of crypto,

40:22 um, is there now? Uh, those are actually the guys. That's, uh, that's, uh, poly

40:27 gon. No, no, no,

40:29 uh, Polygon took somebody from Strap, a guy named John Egan. Yeah. Oh, paper.

40:33 Yeah. Yeah. But the,

40:35 um, uh, listen, polygon is actually doing like a lot of payments volume today

40:40 and they have a

40:40 bunch of institutional payments partners. Like they are now directly head and

40:44 they did that

40:45 acquisition or two acquisitions, I guess. It was the early January or December

40:51 that made them kind of

40:52 fully verticalized payments stack, right? And that's essentially what's

40:55 happening here with tempo

40:56 and stripe and bridge. And so, you know, they're that they're going to be a

40:59 real competitor.

41:00 Solana is obviously taking a little bit of a different approach because, um,

41:04 they started,

41:05 I think leading some VC deals. So they're definitely trying to, you know,

41:08 continue to put money into

41:10 and, and, um, you know, work to get the right people built on top of them. Uh,

41:15 but they're,

41:16 they haven't necessarily owned, you know, like all the fully verticalized stack

41:20 today. Um,

41:22 and so, you know, that's the competitive set, right? And those are the people

41:25 who obviously are

41:26 going to be going to be worried about about tempo. Um, I think to your point

41:32 around, okay, well,

41:33 well, what happens in a world where they're really successful? Like who accrues

41:37 value? Well,

41:38 yeah, I mean, clearly the stripe equity holders accrue value. Um, theoretically

41:43 , the tempo equity

41:44 holders agree value or if they want your token. Uh, I do a lot of economic

41:50 activity happening on

41:51 an EVM chain is probably just good for all of crypto. And some sense it is a

41:56 rising tide,

41:57 but it's, you know, it's probably less good for Ethereum than it is good for

42:01 tempo, but it's not

42:02 bad for Ethereum. If more economic activity from corporations is happening on

42:06 tempo in my mind,

42:07 right? Maybe it's bad for the payments to focus guys or, you know, the, uh, the

42:12 L2s. I don't think

42:13 it's bad for like Ethereum mainnet, right? Because that was never going to be a

42:17 place where you did,

42:19 you know, a large scale amount of traditional, you know, payments. Right. And

42:23 so I actually think,

42:25 I mean, I think there's a rising tides left all boats and that's happening here

42:29 with the Rosie.

42:30 That's always been the Rosie kind of, uh, you know, more activity lifts all

42:34 boats. And so the,

42:36 if someone wins in some part of the ecosystem and benefits everything, I

42:39 actually think

42:39 my stance is a bit more, uh, cutthroat now. I think, uh, you know, that there

42:45 is likely going to be,

42:47 um, you know, that's always the position of a week of a week player, right? It

42:50 's like, oh,

42:50 this is good. But the reality is I think probably

42:54 more concentrated volume, um, even though there's interoperability, even though

43:01 there's,

43:02 you know, uh, you know, the user that enters via tempo could maybe go to

43:07 Ethereum, uh,

43:09 probably maybe I'm, I'm not sure. Um, but, uh, we'll see. I mean, I, I think

43:16 the tendency for

43:17 companies, whether you're Solana or layer zero or Stripe is to own that user

43:24 and not share with

43:24 anyone else if you don't have to. Um, but, uh, I just have a perspective. And

43:29 by the way, it was,

43:30 it was stellar. I was talking about earlier because I actually today, stellar

43:33 and polygon are

43:34 definitely doing, um, probably the most payments in terms of like actual

43:37 payments. You know,

43:38 Solana is there as well, but, um, you know, they've started to get a lot of

43:41 partnerships on board

43:42 while those partnerships aren't really, haven't really scaled yet. Um, but the,

43:47 if more and more

43:49 of what you and I do on a daily basis, it happens to be on chain, more

43:53 businesses will build on chain

43:55 and there'll be more RWAs, there'll be more tokenized assets, there'll be more

44:00 stable coins,

44:00 there will be more, um, net new novel products that will exist because block

44:06 chains enable that,

44:07 right? And I think it's very clear that like, there's no one chain that will

44:15 win all activity,

44:17 right? Like I think that's a very myopic view that doesn't really make a lot of

44:19 sense. Uh, we will

44:21 probably eventually have a fully abstracted, you know, routing system at some

44:25 point that all of

44:26 these guys will plug into that will, you know, give you press price essentially

44:30 across all of

44:31 these different chains. Uh, and the fact that, you know, tempo might, let's say

44:37 tempo is really

44:38 successful and they own, you know, all of the like cross-border payments, right

44:41 ? Um,

44:42 those after that cross-border payments happening, they're being delivered to

44:46 somebody. If it's

44:47 going to an end user, that end user will have a wallet, that end user with that

44:51 wallet will

44:51 figure out ways to spend and save and do all of these other things. And, um,

44:55 you know, the design

44:56 decisions that was made today is not to serve that ecosystem. It's to serve the

45:01 cross-border

45:02 payments ecosystem. Yeah. Uh, yeah, I think this goes back to what I was saying

45:06 earlier and, you know,

45:07 you've probably heard me say this year ago when I was starting off at Meru,

45:10 which is more valuable

45:11 accrue to, to the applications that Clark knows of the world, the new banks of

45:15 the world that can

45:16 choose the infrastructure beneath them, right? To lower the cost of, to serve.

45:20 Um, uh, I think

45:22 time and time again over crypto like once a new player comes in, it just

45:26 introduces more competition

45:28 at that infrastructure layer. And that's always been beneficial for the end

45:31 customer. Um, above

45:33 anything else, right? When Solana came in and like sucked in a lot of DeFi

45:37 activity from Ethereum,

45:39 that like galvanize the Ethereum community. Okay, we got to get our shit

45:42 together because, you know,

45:43 we're getting our out, you know, we're getting our ass kicked here. And I think

45:47 tempo coming

45:47 into the full, like in the same, the hyper liquid made it abundantly clear to

45:51 the Solana leadership

45:52 that they missed, like they dropped the ball on, on perps. Now you have bulk,

45:57 uh, response to

45:59 hyper liquid and then it launched like this week. And so that's something that

46:03 I'm paying attention

46:03 to. But I think that competition at the infra layer is good for the app sitting

46:07 on top and

46:08 ultimately the consumer that is seeing that because they have just access to

46:11 more products.

46:12 They don't really care what that gets routed to your point, right? I mean, it's

46:15 , you know,

46:16 going back to HTTPS, like all you cared about was like, Oh gosh, I can have

46:19 access to Gmail,

46:20 not just Hotmail. That's good for me. You know, this seems pretty good. And

46:23 commerce online just

46:24 became safer. So I think, um, that's where I sort of mean, like, I think I'd

46:31 rather be investing

46:33 and sitting a layer on top because it is just fiercely competitive about the

46:36 infrastructure layer.

46:37 And, um, but net net, it's good for apps. It's good for developers. It's good

46:41 for

46:42 and customers that are just going to benefit from greater ease and convenience

46:47 when they're

46:47 trying to use any sort of stablecoin or crypto enabled product, for that matter

46:51 .

46:52 Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt it's being on chain is better for consumers,

46:56 right? And like,

46:58 the consumers are the ones that we're going to win in the end.

47:01 Yeah, I got five minutes for I was having an expensive call with, uh, with a

47:06 lawyer here that

47:07 I don't want to be late for. But there's just a couple of things where we get

47:10 the content of the

47:10 week. My favorite part, uh, Kraken, we've talked about a length. They just came

47:14 out saying that

47:15 they're delaying IPO plans. I think so they didn't, they didn't say it. Well,

47:19 there was a coin.

47:20 There's a coin that's article that said it. Um, I don't know if that's actually

47:24 true or not.

47:25 And I will say that, you know, I know the team there pretty well. And I think,

47:29 um, uh, I don't

47:31 expect this to be a material, uh, bump in the road for that. Yeah. I think when

47:36 they were raising

47:36 the last round, a lot of there was certainly like a lot of SPVs, a lot of

47:40 people that came in. It

47:41 was a big round. A lot of them were kind of looking at like, Hey, there's,

47:44 there's a likely

47:44 going to be an IPO event. Uh, I don't think anyone underwrote this year. I

47:48 think most people assumed

47:49 it was going to be like, uh, within the next three years kind of thing. And I

47:52 would probably think

47:53 that that continues to be on track. Um, you know, irrespective of like macro

47:58 conditions and whatnot,

47:59 like they've been, they've been like in this IPO readiness track for quite a

48:02 bit of time and

48:03 they continue to ship really good products. And so I, I think it happens within

48:07 probably next year.

48:08 Um, unless there's some like major kind of catastrophic market event, I think

48:12 they could

48:12 probably be a Reddit IPO next year. Yeah. I, I, um, I still think this year is

48:18 possible. So, um, yeah.

48:20 Are there, are there on this point, are there other, uh, in the docket? Like,

48:23 uh, I think we saw

48:24 it just a huge wave loss from this bitco. Is there anything else that's coming

48:27 on?

48:27 There's a bunch of people who might come this year. Uh, I think nobody's

48:31 decided for sure. I think

48:32 it depends a little bit. The markets probably need to stabilize like, like the

48:36 IPO market,

48:36 all of a sudden kind of shot again with the, the war in Iran, right? And so,

48:40 you know,

48:40 tell the risk as risk markets are back. Like you're not going to see any good

48:44 IPOs, let alone, uh, the,

48:47 you know, got the crypto ones. You also probably don't want to be going at the

48:51 same time that

48:52 open AI and SpaceX are going. And so you probably want to avoid that. And so

48:57 you're

48:57 probably your window is like, you know, call it the next three to six months or

49:02 else you want to

49:02 push it to next year. So, but there's a lot of people, I will say that I do

49:05 think a lot of people want to

49:06 get, um, get out before the next election. Yeah. Yeah, we should, yeah, no, is

49:13 our rather, you know,

49:14 in-house political expert. We'll save that discussion for next week of DAS,

49:17 which I'm very

49:18 excited about. Um, and we should talk about like what it means for crypto. Uh,

49:23 if the war continues

49:24 and, you know, approval ratings go down, like, you know, you have a different,

49:27 you know, shake up in

49:28 the houses. Like what that means for the clarity, I can have a bunch of other

49:31 things, but I mean,

49:32 if you look at polywracker right now, it's, it's, it's flashing to you pretty

49:35 clearly what

49:36 they think is going to happen in the midterms. Yeah. Does that worry you? No, I

49:42 mean, it's also

49:44 typical in the midterms, right? Like the, um, the house is almost certainly

49:47 going to flip. Uh,

49:49 the Senate is in play. I don't think anybody thought the Senate would be in

49:51 play, but now it is.

49:53 Um, we'll see. I think, you know, the number one thing will be kind of the

49:56 downstream effects

49:57 from my ran war and how long the ran war goes to be honest. Yeah. Yeah.

50:00 Speaking of, as an aside,

50:03 before we go to content of the week, uh, we, so token got canceled. I think a

50:07 lot of conferences,

50:08 I think token Singapore is still going to happen, but, uh, you can expect the

50:12 airfare to be

50:13 dramatically more expensive, uh, going forward. Um, just kind of wild how that

50:19 spiked. I hope you,

50:20 I hope you booked your travel in advance for offer on some of these conferences

50:23 . I know you and I

50:24 are going to go to an event that you guys are doing in an undisclosed location,

50:27 but uh, um,

50:28 I'm glad I booked that airfare well in advance because it's looking pretty,

50:32 pretty steep now.

50:32 I've already got my airfare book to Monaco to come see you. So, yeah. Don't

50:39 worry. You have,

50:40 you have a couch, man. You know, um, all right. Well, that's a, at risk of

50:46 going down geopolitical

50:47 route. Yet again, uh, I think we, we've maintained ourselves pretty, pretty

50:51 good here. Uh, not,

50:52 not done too much of that. Uh, what's the content of the week here?

50:54 Two things. One, the most obvious thing, which is it's March Madness.

50:59 So like it is, you know, it's college basketball, one of the most fun times in

51:04 the year.

51:04 What's, what's March Madness?

51:06 No, you're not serious. I'm not, I'm not that bad. I won't let you, I won't let

51:12 you have that. Um,

51:13 so March Madness, you know, obviously that's all my mind. And then, um,

51:18 are you a Buckeye? Uh, yeah, a higher state Buckeye fan. So they have an eight

51:22 seed, you know, um,

51:23 so we'll, uh, you know, it's a football school, not a basketball school, but we

51:27 'll, we'll see,

51:27 the basketball team's had no case season. So we'll see how it goes. Um, and

51:31 then, uh, you know,

51:33 I have to get back to, to my horror movie roots. And there's, uh, there was a,

51:37 a movie called Ready

51:38 or Not, which was actually like a very fun, um, movie about a woman who, you

51:44 know, got married

51:45 into a family. And it turns out this family has sort of a very odd tradition

51:50 about, um, having to,

51:51 like, sacrifice, you know, kind of the new, uh, the new bride. Um, and then she

51:56 kind of ends up

51:58 beating the, beating the family and, and end up not being sacrificed. But the

52:01 sequel to that comes

52:02 out tomorrow. It's actually very fun. It's cool movie, you know, kind of a

52:05 action, a horror movie.

52:07 It's obviously in that opening day. So you're going to go to the movie theater

52:10 and popcorn and

52:11 all that stuff. Oh yeah. The, the, the, there's a, the one you go through is

52:17 like old fashions and

52:18 this. I mean, I'm going to have an old fashioned and maybe I'll have a, you

52:21 know, a popcorn or

52:22 maybe all the burger. You know, if you ever want to go on Friday, I feel like

52:26 we leak a lot

52:26 of off of you ever want to raise from, from drag and fly. You just have

52:30 basically gotten a blueprint

52:32 as to how to approach, uh, talk about horror, have an opinion on old fashioned,

52:38 um, and, and,

52:40 I mean, old fashioned kind of sore. You should know that. Yeah. I know. I know

52:43 that now. I think

52:44 the market now knows that. And so I think we use this podcast. If you ever want

52:47 to raise around

52:48 from drag and fly, there's a lot of primer, like alpha here that breadcrumbs

52:51 that you just pick

52:52 up and, and, and, and like show that you're prepared. Um, so my content of the

52:57 week is as

52:58 always more boring here. Uh, I started, uh, reading, uh, Carl Malone's book

53:02 Born to Be Wired. Uh,

53:03 just a really fantastic, I've always had it on my list. I read Ted Turner's, um

53:08 , book, uh, a while

53:10 back. And that's obviously the, uh, intertwined. Uh, but this one is just

53:14 phenomenal. Um, just a

53:15 really fascinating story of how they did roll ups of the cable industry. Um, of

53:20 course, they

53:20 now have Liberty Media. I know how much you like F1. They bought F1, which is

53:23 probably one of

53:24 a phenomenal investment in my mind, but it tells you everything like just, uh,

53:28 they laid the, the

53:29 fiber, um, first the cable than the fiber, uh, which obviously allowed for the

53:33 internet and whatnot.

53:34 And then, um, yeah, really, really fascinating story. Uh, that's called Born to

53:38 Be Wired. Uh,

53:39 I'm halfway through it. Uh, I started a couple of days ago and it's just really

53:42 , really, really

53:43 good book. So I recommend. Cool. I'll check it out. All right. So what next

53:49 week,

53:49 Dass, we're going to be recording live in person. Yeah. That's going to be fun.

53:54 Big time.

53:54 And it'll be Yano's big comeback. Come back. Yes. That's right. That's right.

53:59 That's

53:59 going to be fun, man. I'm excited for that. And, uh, if, if you guys are in New

54:02 York,

54:03 let us know. Uh, this is probably the time where Yano would be doing a plug to

54:06 get your tickets to

54:07 Dass. Prices are going to go up like in 20 minutes. I think it's almost sold

54:10 out. Sold out, sold out.

54:12 It's going to be a great event. Um, if you're in the area, let us know and

54:16 excited to hang out with

54:17 you guys in person. Cool. All right. All right. See you next week, guys.

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